Memory prices are set for steep increases across nearly all segments in the first quarter of 2026 as suppliers continue to prioritize server and AI-related applications over consumer and client markets, according to the latest analysis from TrendForce.
The research firm reports that a combination of surging AI server demand, disciplined capacity management, and constrained production is reshaping supply dynamics for both DRAM and NAND Flash, resulting in significant quarter-on-quarter price hikes. It confirms the news we reported yesterday.
On the DRAM side, manufacturers are increasingly reallocating advanced process nodes and new capacity toward server DRAM and high-bandwidth memory products, which are essential for AI training and inference workloads. This strategic shift has sharply reduced available supply for conventional applications such as PCs, graphics cards, and consumer devices. TrendForce estimates that contract prices for conventional DRAM could rise by approximately 55 to 60 percent quarter on quarter in 1Q26, reflecting one of the most aggressive pricing cycles in recent years.
Despite weak notebook shipment forecasts and slower growth in PC memory demand due to specification downgrades, PC DRAM prices are still expected to rise sharply. Suppliers have tightened shipments to PC original equipment manufacturers and module makers, limiting direct supply. As a result, some OEMs are being forced to source memory through branded modules at higher costs, a trend that is expected to ripple through the supply chain and drive up end pricing for PC DRAM products.
The server DRAM market is facing even more pronounced pressure. TrendForce notes that U.S.-based cloud service providers have been accelerating procurement since late 2025, driven largely by AI inference infrastructure rollouts. Strong historical purchasing patterns and favorable demand forecasts have allowed these buyers to secure a larger share of available bit supply growth. Meanwhile, supplier inventories are nearing depletion, leaving shipment growth dependent almost entirely on incremental wafer output. Under these conditions, server DRAM prices are projected to rise by more than 60 percent quarter on quarter in the first quarter of 2026.
In mobile DRAM, seasonal softness in smartphone demand has not translated into lower prices. Supply constraints remain acute, and TrendForce expects contract prices to continue rising in coming quarters. Both LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X markets are undersupplied, with uneven resource allocation further supporting upward price momentum. Smartphone brands, anticipating ongoing tightness, are maintaining aggressive procurement strategies despite near-term demand uncertainty.
NAND Flash, Client SSDs
Graphics DRAM presents a mixed picture. Demand has softened following downward revisions to sales targets for NVIDIA’s RTX 6000-series GPUs and shipment reductions by some PC OEMs. However, pricing pressure persists because graphics DRAM production competes for capacity with DDR5, which relies on similar process technologies. As long as suppliers prioritize higher-margin DDR5 output, graphics DRAM supply is likely to remain constrained, sustaining price increases.
On the NAND Flash front, AI-driven data center investments are emerging as the dominant growth engine. TrendForce forecasts that enterprise solid-state drives will become the largest NAND Flash application segment in 2026, fueled by accelerating server deployments from North American cloud providers. Limited capacity expansion and supplier focus on profitability are tightening supply, pushing enterprise SSD prices higher.
Client SSDs are also facing sharp price increases despite weakening demand. Notebook shipments are expected to decline quarter on quarter in 1Q26, and some entry-level and mid-range models are being downgraded to reduce bill-of-materials costs. Even so, suppliers are diverting output away from client SSDs toward data center products. The availability of high-capacity, low-cost QLC-based SSDs is particularly constrained, leading TrendForce to project client SSD contract price increases of at least 40 percent quarter on quarter, the largest rise among NAND Flash categories.
In the eMMC and UFS segment, smartphone demand is weakening as promotional sales earlier in 2025 pulled forward consumption, pushing the market into an inventory adjustment phase. Smartphone shipments are expected to fall significantly quarter on quarter, and while Chromebook shipments may see some support from government procurement programs, overall demand remains soft. On the supply side, continued capacity reductions – only partially offset by module makers – are keeping the market undersupplied.
For NAND Flash wafers, subdued consumer and retail demand combined with aggressive price increases in late 2025 are expected to dampen buying interest in early 2026. Suppliers are prioritizing higher-margin products, further restricting wafer availability to module makers and sustaining upward pricing pressure.
Taken together, TrendForce’s outlook suggests that memory markets are entering a period where supply discipline and AI-driven demand outweigh traditional seasonal patterns, reshaping pricing dynamics well into 2026.
Executive Insights FAQ
Why are memory prices rising so sharply in 1Q26?
Suppliers are prioritizing server and AI-related products, limiting supply for other applications while demand continues to grow, especially in data centers.
Which memory segments are most affected by AI demand?
Server DRAM, HBM, and enterprise SSDs are seeing the strongest demand growth, driving the largest price increases.
Why are PC and client SSD prices increasing despite weaker demand?
Suppliers are tightening supply and reallocating capacity to higher-margin server products, forcing price increases even as end-market demand softens.
How are smartphone memory markets impacted?
Mobile DRAM remains undersupplied, supporting higher prices, while eMMC and UFS face weaker demand due to inventory adjustments.
Is this pricing trend expected to continue beyond 1Q26?
TrendForce indicates that constrained capacity growth and sustained AI investment are likely to keep supply tight and prices elevated in the near term.
