If you got into crypto trading to earn money, you’re in the right place.
But even if turning a profit trading Bitcoin is easy, sticking to your strategy might not always be. That’s because crypto makes it tempting to make sudden moves, and reading contradictory cryptocurrency market predictions doesn’t make it any easier. Simply put, trading views don’t just come from the pros, and relying on a crypto market analysis might not always work out the way you’d hoped.
With that in mind, let’s take a look back at the predictions from September 2018 and see which BTC market predictions held true.
Long-term market predictions
If we consider a BTC market analysis of the past 5 years, there is a general trend to be observed going forward. Over the course of 2014, Bitcoin had dropped about -86%, from $1173 to $162 USD. If the market trend is cyclical, then estimating a similar loss from the most recent high in late 2017 to an estimated low point of $2600 was anticipated.
However, taking into account the all time high from 2014 and the time it took Bitcoin to return to this same price (roughly 1127 days), this same analysis would see Bitcoin surge back to nearly $20,000 again by 2021 and continue to trend upward.
Although Bitcoin never dropped below $3000 in 2018, this general trend remained true in the short-term, albeit delayed. BTC found support above $6000 throughout September, but ultimately fell in November to a 1 year low of $3200.
In fact, many short-term predictions called the drop to $3,000 BTC several months in advance, believing the forward path of crypto in the fall of 2018 to be heavily downward. Since Bitcoin’s all time high in December of 2017, the cryptocurrency has formed nothing but lower peaks, attesting to the bearishness of the market this past year.
From a technical standpoint, BTC continued the move into a falling wedge formed from January of 2018 in the fall. This downward reversal pattern was what caused many short-term predictions to speculate on the eventual sharp spike in sell volume mid-November or to forecast sudden growth from momentum expansion on the breakdown. Evidently, this growth never emerged, and it serves as an important lesson in Bitcoin trading: stick to your strategy.
Buying into FOMO or FUD is almost always going to end badly.
Looking back on the past few months of cryptocurrency market predictions, the takeaway is the same that it’s always been for crypto trading. Long-term strategists need to look at long-term analysis, and swing traders need to stick to short-term predictions. In other words, a dedicated investor following a long-term strategy has no business reading hourly BTC/USD charts.